iPhone 16 shipments are not expected to increase in 2024 despite claims, says analyst

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iPhone 16 shipments were previously expected to see a rise in 2024, but that may not be the case, according to claims from an Apple analyst. This rise in iPhone orders from suppliers was speculated to be a result of the upgrades coming with Apple’s next iPhone, headlined by Apple Intelligence – its suite of artificial intelligence (AI) features. However, recent earnings calls from Apple suppliers have indicated that the company is expecting similar shipments of its iPhone 16 compared to the iPhone 15 series.

iPhone 16 shipments

There have been rumours in the past few weeks that Apple is planning higher shipments of the iPhone 16 in 2024. A recent report by Bloomberg suggested that Apple is planning to ship at least 90 million iPhone 16 units in the second half of 2024, marking a 10 percent year-on-year (YoY) growth. This is attributed to the iPhone maker expecting higher sales of the entire iPhone 16 lineup thanks to the new A18 chipset as well as the Apple Intelligence feature.

However, that might not be the case. According to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, earnings calls from two Apple suppliers – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Largan – show that Apple is not expecting any major jump in shipments of its next iPhone series from an electronics manufacturing services (EMS) or assembly perspective.

Estimates suggest 87 million iPhone 16 units are expected to be shipped in the second half of 2024, compared to 91 million iPhone 15 shipments in 2H23.

According to the analyst, people at TSMC said that “we did not see a sudden increase in unit growth”. In addition, “orders for high-end models this year are similar to last year”, Largan commented.

Notably, Apple Intelligence is officially confirmed to be compatible only with the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max powered by the A17 Pro SoC. On the other hand, the standard iPhone 15 and previous models are not supported. Since the entire iPhone 16 lineup is speculated to run on the same chipset, all models in the series may support Apple’s AI suite.

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